Every bettor hits a losing streak. It is inevitable. This calculator predicts your worst-case scenario so you can size your bets correctly and survive the bad weeks.
Enter your details below to see the longest losing streak you are statistically guaranteed to hit.
Strategy
€100 – €10 000
1–10% of starting bank
Number of Bets (n)
Total bets for any period.
Strike Rate (SR %)
Enter strike rate to estimate E.L.S.
Yearly outlook under a worst-case losing streak
Risk Management 101
E.L.S. (Expected Losing Sequence) isn't magic. It uses probability mathematics to forecast the longest losing run you are statistically guaranteed to face.
Input 01
If you bet on high odds (underdogs), you win less often. This mathematically forces longer losing streaks.
Input 02
A losing streak of 10 seems impossible over 50 bets. But over 1,000 bets, it becomes a statistical certainty.
The Strategy
We multiply the mathematical streak by 3 to protect your Growth Rate.
n = Total Bets
The Reality
E.L.S. isn't about telling you if you'll hit a bad run. It tells you how bad it will be, so you can decide today whether your bankroll survives it.
Bets on "Feelings"
Looks only at today's games and bets random amounts based on confidence.
The "Drawdown Cliff"
Hits a statistically guaranteed losing streak (E.L.S.). Because stakes were too high, they lose 50% of the bank.
The Recovery Trap
Math dictates that losing 50% requires a 100% profit just to break even. Panic sets in.
Gambler's Ruin
Starts chasing losses with bigger bets. Burns the zeros. Bankrupt.
Calculates the E.L.S. first. Chooses a fixed 1–2% stake so that the inevitable bad run is just a 15% temporary dip. Recovery is mathematically easy, emotions stay stable, and the bankroll keeps compounding.
The Solution
Our rule is simple: Build your bank to survive 3× your E.L.S.
Why 3×? Because the goal isn't just survival—it is Growth.
If a losing run cuts your bank by 60%, every future bet is 60% smaller. Your recovery becomes painfully slow.
If you use the Shield and only dip ~20%, your stake size stays healthy. You recover quickly, and compound interest can actually do its job.
Did you know?
A 55% Win Rate bettor has a 99% chance of losing 8 bets in a row over 1,000 games. (Are you bankrolled for that?)
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