Risk Management Tool

Will Your Bankroll Survive?

Every bettor hits a losing streak. It is inevitable. This calculator predicts your worst-case scenario so you can size your bets correctly and survive the bad weeks.

E.L.S. Calculator

Enter your details below to see the longest losing streak you are statistically guaranteed to hit.

Strategy

Starting Bank

€100 – €10 000

€500
€100€10 000

Stake %

1–10% of starting bank

2.5%
1%10%

Number of Bets (n)

Total bets for any period.

Strike Rate (SR %)

Enter strike rate to estimate E.L.S.

Remaining Bank: €301.00 (60%)
Risk Level: Low (ELS: 6.6)

Risk Management 101

How E.L.S. Works

E.L.S. (Expected Losing Sequence) isn't magic. It uses probability mathematics to forecast the longest losing run you are statistically guaranteed to face.

Input 01

Strike Rate %

If you bet on high odds (underdogs), you win less often. This mathematically forces longer losing streaks.

Input 02

Total Bets

A losing streak of 10 seems impossible over 50 bets. But over 1,000 bets, it becomes a statistical certainty.

The Strategy

Why 3x E.L.S?

We multiply the mathematical streak by 3 to protect your Growth Rate.

The Math Behind It
Log(n) / -log(1 - SR) = E.L.S.

n = Total Bets

The Reality

The Mathematics of Ruin

E.L.S. isn't about telling you if you'll hit a bad run. It tells you how bad it will be, so you can decide today whether your bankroll survives it.

The Amateur Cycle

  • Bets on "Feelings"

    Looks only at today's games and bets random amounts based on confidence.

  • The "Drawdown Cliff"

    Hits a statistically guaranteed losing streak (E.L.S.). Because stakes were too high, they lose 50% of the bank.

  • The Recovery Trap

    Math dictates that losing 50% requires a 100% profit just to break even. Panic sets in.

  • Gambler's Ruin

    Starts chasing losses with bigger bets. Burns the zeros. Bankrupt.

The Professional Approach

Calculates the E.L.S. first. Chooses a fixed 1–2% stake so that the inevitable bad run is just a 15% temporary dip. Recovery is mathematically easy, emotions stay stable, and the bankroll keeps compounding.

The Solution

The Safe Shield

Our rule is simple: Build your bank to survive 3× your E.L.S.

Why 3×? Because the goal isn't just survival—it is Growth.

If a losing run cuts your bank by 60%, every future bet is 60% smaller. Your recovery becomes painfully slow.

If you use the Shield and only dip ~20%, your stake size stays healthy. You recover quickly, and compound interest can actually do its job.

Did you know?

A 55% Win Rate bettor has a 99% chance of losing 8 bets in a row over 1,000 games. (Are you bankrolled for that?)

Common Questions

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