Tools
Plug in the tipster's opening price and their long-term yield to know the minimum odds that still keep your edge.
Enter the odds the tipster posted and their documented yield.
The price the tipster shared when the pick went live.
Historical ROI on comparable tips (percentage).
Updated instantly from the inputs above.
Use your tipster's yield to draw a hard line in the sand.
You get a fresh tip: Spurs vs Villa Over 2.5 @ 2.10
By the time you pull up the sportsbook, the market is already 1.85.
You need a yes-or-no answer before the price slips again.
Most bettors guess. Smart bettors run the numbers in under five seconds.
Our Yield-Based Cut-off calculator turns your tipster's long-term ROI into a minimum acceptable price so you can answer that question with maths instead of gut feel.
If your tipster shows +15% yield on 2.00-opening picks, the model is effectively saying the game hits 57.5% of the time.
That win probability is what you must defend even when the market whips lower.
Once you know p, the break-even odds (zero edge) follow immediately.
Touch anything below 1.74 and the +15% tip turns into a leak.
Pros refuse to donate their edge for free, so they add a simple cushion.
Price at 1.83 or higher? You still bank 5% EV. 1.82 or worse? Pass without regret.
The acceptable slide from open is always the same for a given yield and cushion.
Lock in 8-9% as the danger zone and you can do the maths while the market is melting.
Feed the live number into the calculator and let it judge the bet, emotion-free.
No spreadsheets, no sweat. Just a green or red light before kickoff.
Markets move - edges do not have to.
Use the cut-off, protect your yield, and skip the bets that look "close enough" but quietly bleed your bankroll.
Keep the edge rolling.
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